BEST PICTURE

A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, The Lord of the Rings, Moulin Rouge

Will win: First of all, we can rule out the token small indy film and the middlebrow "old respected guy" film. Rings has some strong support, but the biggest night in Hollywood doesn't usually close with everyone bowing down to something that feels like it should be the grand finale of a Dungeons and Dragons convention. Rouge is experiencing an upturn lately, but that may be because it came out so long ago that it's easier for people to forget its flaws. The winner here is the one that is most like a traditional "Oscar" picture: well made, entertaining, vaguely prestigious but ultimately rather old-fashioned. That, of course, is Mind. You were keeping track, right?

Should Win: Mind is the best of this bunch. Who cares if it wasn't historically accurate? Is this the Best Documentary category? Oh, and Spike Lee-I neglected Hurricane for Best Picture a few years back not because it was inaccurate, but because it sucked.

O'Malley says: The Best Picture trophy has gone to a film whose title ends in a "D" twice before. Could the third time be the charm for "A Beautiful Mind?

BEST DIRECTOR

Opie Cunningham A Beautiful Mind, Robert Altman Gosford Park, David Lynch Mulholland Drive, Peter Jackson The Lord of the Rings, Ridley Scott Black Hawk Down

Will win: Opie Cunningham (tm Eddie Murphy) always gets snubbed by the Academy-will they dare disrespect him again as they give his film Best Picture? Is it possible for someone as white as him to get "disrespected" by anyone? Last year they Gave Steven Soderbergh this prize for Traffic even as Ridley Scott's Gladiator won Best Pic. But that was more a case of everyone saying, "Uh, Steve, we know your picture was ten times better…hell, we don't even know why we're voting for Gladiator – it just seems like the thing to do. Sorry. Here is an award for you."

So this year Ridley Scott gets a "No Chance in Hell" nod as a bone for being embarrassed by losing last year. Everyone seems to love "Bob" Altman, even though he seems to hate them all back, but he won't win, and neither will David Lynch. I am so confident of that, I will make this extremely risky bet: If Lynch wins, I will actually…try to explain Mulholland Drive to you. It's between Opie and Peter Jackson. Everyone says Opie has to live down his child star image to be taken seriously, but Jackson doesn't have to worry about that. His big shaggy beard makes him look more like someone who eats child stars. Why doesn't Jackson have to live down Meet the Feebles and The Frighteners? Opie may have missed that last free throw in the big game against Fillmore High, but he wins here.

Should win: It would be easy to label Mind an achievement of acting and writing, but it was actually skillfully directed. Be Fair to Opie!

O'Malley says: This could be the first time a Best Director winner has not slept with his leading lady since Silence of the Lambs. As a result, this race is wide open.

BEST ACTOR

Will Smith Ali, Denzel Washington Training Day, Russell Crowe A Beautiful Mind, Tom Wilkinson In the Bedroom, Sean Penn I Am Sam

Will win: Tom Wilkinson has about as much star power as the Cleveland Cavaliers. Which is actually kind of a compliment when you consider there's five of them on the court at any given time, so for him to have as much star power as FIVE people-ah, just forget we said it. Will Smith was OK, but his movie failed him. Penn's gimmicky portrayal of a mentally handicapped man would be seen as shameless Oscar begging if anyone could imagine Penn ever begging for ANYTHING (except maybe nooky from Madonna). As it is, it's just seen as embarrassing.

It's Crowe vs. Washington, and the race card has been thrown around so much I expect top see Johnnie Cochran reporting on the red carpet with Joan Rivers this year. Meanwhile, Crowe has been accused of being a jerk. No! And supposedly the guy he played, John Nash, may have been a jerk. No! What that has to do with how good Crowe's performance was, I don't know, but when was merit the main factor in an Oscar race?

Should win: Washington gave the most electrifying performance of the year and you could simply not stop watching him. Crowe was just fantastic, but he got his gift award last year and this is Denzel's year.

O'Malley says: I looked into your comment on when merit was last a factor in the Oscar race, and it was actually 1996, when Geoffrey Rush won for Shine. As for this year, Penn was very entertaining in a change-of-pace role as Phoebe's boyfriend on Friends--and, wait, this isn't the Emmys? Well, he played a retard, didn't he? They always give it to the guy who plays a retard.

BEST ACTRESS

Halle Berry Monster's Ball, Nicole Kidman Moulin Rouge, Judi Dench Iris, Sissy Spacek In the Bedroom, Renee Zellweger Bridget Jones' Diary

Will win: Renee Zellweger has a legitimate shot-ah, sorry, we can't even pretend to believe that. Apparently it is OK to nominate a comic performance if the actress gains weight and an accent, but an actual win is out of the question. Why were so many people captivated by Kidman? I still don't see her appeal, but I will admit she did a magnificent job this year. Unfortunately, that was in The Others. By the way, how did she become America's Adopted Sweetheart? I miss the days when she was the scheming, manipulative actress who married Cruise to get ahead, not the sympathetic victim who somehow got even more ahead by being dumped by him.

While she could ride the sympathetic vote, most observers I talk to-and by talk I mean "read" in the newspapers-think it's a battle between Berry and Spacek. Too bad it wasn't a Celebrity Boxing match, in which case Berry would easily be the victor because of her experience fighting idiotic celebrity boyfriends in the past. Speaking of combat, Spacek may just get rewarded for doing something in her movie that many Academy members have wanted to do for years-slap Marisa Tomei. Yet Barry toned down the glamour-basically, she wore less expensive jewelry-and this feels like her year.

Should win: Judi Dench is at the point where I almost expect her to be nominated for her work in the next Bond movie. But she is quite deserving this time and would get my vote.

O'Malley says: A win by Kidman would continue a long tradition of honoring actresses who play whores, dating back of course, to Vivian Leigh in Gone With the Wind. While you hope that this category is not decided in any way by race is never really a factor, you have to wonder if voting will be affected by the fact that Kidman is Australian. Will the Academy make the groundbreaking move of giving an Australian Best Actor and Actress? Wow. That would truly show how far we've come.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jim Broadbent Iris, Ian McKellen The Lord of the Rings, Jon Voight Ali, Ben Kingsley Sexy Beast, Ethan Hawke Training Day

I must be the only one of the 25 of us in the country that saw Sexy Beast who wasn't impressed with "Stone Cold" Ben Kingsley's wanna-be bad-ass routine. As for Voight's Howard Cosell, well, the only thing he convinced me of was that his hairpiece was appropriately fake. Would you believe the same man who played the dad in Bridget Jones and the boisterous emcee in Moulin Rouge was the gentle, doddering old John Bayley in Iris? He was. Would you also believe he played the title role in Pootie Tang? Well, now you're just being gullible. A win here by Hawke might be enough to drive me to…uh, what do you call it? Oh yeah, "read books." Broadbent had a fab year, but this is the Academy's chance to reward the respected McKellen and honor the smash hit LOTR with an award that isn't associated with the word "technical."

Should win: Broadbent. It was the same guy, I'm telling you.

O'Malley says: This race was made all the more intriguing by Broadbent's win at the East Nicaraguan Film Festival Awards last week, although I'm still inclined to go with McKellen based on his victory at January's Craft Services Guild Awards. One question still looms: Could Voight's recognition at the Boxing Illustrated year-end awards banquet indicate he will be a spoiler?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Connelly A Beautiful Mind, Kate Winslet Iris<./I>, Marisa Tomei In the Bedroom, Maggie Smith Gosford Park, Helen Mirren Gosford Park.

Tomei was so good we've decided to stop making Tomei Oscar jokes. Winslet is the only actress in this category to be nude during half of her screen time, although rumors persist of a nude Maggie Smith shower scene Robert Altman will put on the Gosford Park DVD. Never underestimate the older women with classy accents-that combo almost assures you will be seen as a quality actress-but this is clearly Connelly's award. She should be in the Best Actress category given the heft and importance of her role, but maybe her people were afraid Meryl Streep was gonna release a movie at the last minute. Connelly has smooth sailing here, although I am hearing whispers that the performance was "dishonest" since the real-life Alicia Nash was never as beautiful as Connelly.

Should win: Connelly was excellent. If she had been in the Actress category, a deserving contender like Emily Watson (Believe it or not, there were actresses from Gosford Park that did NOT get nominated) or Naomi Watts from Mulholland Drive could have sneaked in here.

O'Malley says: I went to the mall last week and asked 5 people who would win, and 4 of them said Connelly. The other asked me for directions to Orange Julius.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Amélie, Monster's Ball, Memento, The Royal Tenenbaums, Gosford Park

Will win: Ball had more coincidences than an episode of Gilligan's Island, and Tenenbaums just didn't connect with a lot of people. Amélie charmed many, but could be hurt by being, you know, foreign. This could be the chance to acknowledge Gosford Park, but there are rumblings that voters had troubles understanding the accents that deliver that witty dialogue. That may be a good thing if they also missed the incredibly contrived plot twist. All this leads us to believe this category is Hollywood's chance to say, "Hey, people actually make things that are sort of inventive sometimes," and give it to the Nolans for Memento. Then, of course, they will say, "Nice pic, but where's the merchandising in that?"

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

A Beautiful Mind, Ghost World<./I>, Shrek, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings

Will win: Ah, the writing categories. Writers get no respect. Even we're not giving them respect-notice we aren't listing the names of the writers with the nominated films? Well, Akiva Goldsman, who wrote A Beautiful Mind, should just be thankful that someone who very well might have been responsible for Arnold as Mr. Freeze saying "Ice to see you" in Batman and Robin is gonna get an Academy Award. It is possible he takes the heat for the "accuracy" controversy, but who else is going to win? A script based on a comic book? A cartoon? Goldsman is the safe bet here.

Should win: Goldsman. Some people are calling his structural trick "dishonest." Those people are cranky bastards.

O'Malley says: Didn't I just make my incisive screenplay comment? Am I getting paid for this? I have to do a TV appearance for Home and Garden's Oscar Special in 10 minutes.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Shrek, Monsters, Inc., Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius

Will win: There are two great films here, and then there is...Jimmy freakin' Neutron? Did everyone hate Final Fantasy THAT much? Disney has nothing to be ashamed of, but this year was all Shrek.

Should win: And it should be Shrek, although Monsters will endure just as long.

O'Malley says: Jimmy freakin' Neutron?