 The biggest show in music doesn't feel like such a big deal anymore after all the jams, Hall of Fame ceremonies, and various All-Star concerts and tributes we see all year round. Let's face it, the Grammys are now no bigger than the typical Friday night in Kid Rock's basement. Come to think of it, they are not even as inflated, excessive, and stupid as Kid Rock's girlfriend. They are just kind of there. Still, they are a big deal because...because...well, Wal-Mart gets to slap "Grammy Nominated" on a bunch of CDs for a couple of months. OK?
Since the awards are so important, it is our sacred duty to analyze them. Here are our predictions of the major award races, that is, the ones people care about. The full list of categories gets nuttier and nuttier every year. This year the Recording Academy is offering a statue for "Best rap/sung collaboration." Does that really need to be a whole category? And what the hell is it, exactly? It sounds like an excuse to give Gwen Stefani and Eve an award-which actually may not be a bad idea.
Anyway here are my predictions for the more legitimate awards:
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Compilation Soundtrack album |
Bridget Jones's Diary, Moulin Rouge, O Brother, Where Art Thou?, Shrek, The Sopranos: Peppers & Eggs. |
Will win: Nothing can stop the "O Brother" phenomenon. Somehow this became the Year of Bluegrass. Well, that's a lot better than the Year of Breakdancing, 1984. The Moulin Rouge soundtrack might have a shot in any other year, but really it's hard to feel sorry for any album that contains Ewan MacGregor's rendition of "Your Song."
Should win: O Brother. After all, it is musically legitimate yet captures the essence of the movie. I mean, does The Sopranos album really make you want to go out and break some kneecaps? Strangely, listening to the music in Bridget Jones did make me want to start smoking, writing coy comments in a journal, and fretting about my weight. Note to self: find Johnny Cash albums and administer them as antidote…immediately. |
|
Music Video |
"Fly Away from Here," Aerosmith; "One Minute Man," Missy "Misdemeanor" Elliott featuring Ludacris; "Weapon of Choice," Fatboy Slim; "Don't Tell Me," Madonna; "Ms. Jackson," OutKast |
Will win: Videos? Hey, these have been showing up on TV again lately. "Weapon of Choice" has Christopher Walken's dancing routine, of course. Grammy voters may also be heavily influenced by the video's showing at the influential, prestigious MTV Video Music Awards. Ha ha, OK, just kidding. But go with Walken here.
Should win: Forget about how "elegant" or technically proficient it was-Walken's dancing in this video was somehow creepier than his watch speech in Pulp Fiction, more disturbing than his character in At Close Range, and even scarier than Missy Elliott's efforts to dance sexily in her nominated video.. That deserves an award. |
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Best New Artist |
Linkin Park, India.Arie, Alicia Keys, David Gray, Nelly Furtado |
Will win: Nelly Furtado flew like a bird but will sink like a rock soon enough. David Gray-is that guy still here? Didn't that annoying song where he mumbles and then spits out the word "Babylon" a bunch of times come out, like, 3 years ago? Linkin Park likes to sing kinda softly and THEN GET LOUD. And oh, yeah, they're angry. This leaves two people with talent-India Arie and Alicia Keys. Keys will win-she gets all the hype and is already seen as the biggest upcoming star since past winner Paula Cole. Oops.
Should win: Alicia Keys is destined to be around here for more than 5 years. Which means, judging from past winners, she actually is totally wrong for this award. But I would vote for her anyway. Even if I wish she would get rid of the braids. |
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Best R&B Album |
"Aaliyah," Aaliyah; "Acoustic Soul," India.Arie; "No More Drama," Mary J. Blige; "Survivor," Destiny's Child; "Songs in A Minor," Alicia Keys |
Will win: Any possible sympathy vote for the late Aaliyah probably evaporated when voters realized her movie was still gonna be released. People actually paying to see Queen of the Damned is tribute enough. Therefore I will go with Keys here in a narrow win over Blige.
Should win: It pains me to say this, but Destiny's Child has been so overexposed, I couldn't even enjoy their stirring rendition of "I Got a New Way to Walk" on Sesame Street So might as well give this one to Keys. |
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Best Rock Album |
"Gold," Ryan Adams; "Just Push Play," Aerosmith; "Stories from the City, Stories from the Sea," PJ Harvey; "Hybrid Theory," Linkin Park; "All That You Can't Leave Behind, U2 |
Will win: "Hey, look, we're hip! We nominated PJ Harvey!" Yes, they did, but U2 will win.
Should win: As much as I love the Ryan Adams album, its U2 here. |
|
Best Rap Album |
"Scorpion," Eve; "Pain Is Love," Ja Rule; "The Blueprint, Jay-Z; "Back for the First Time," Ludacris; "Stankonia," OutKast |
Will win: OutKast is pretty bizarre, but they have critical respect, and to the Academy, aliens, mystical stuff, and quirkiness is probably a whole lot better than thuggery.
Should win: I'm no rap expert, but the fact I haven't used the word "illin'" in 5 years gives me better credentials than many voters. Nothing is more pleasant than the vocal gravel of Ja Rule (hey, do you want your rapping thugs to sound like Mel Torme?) but I've got to go with OutKast here. |
|
Song of the Year |
"Video," India.Arie; "Fallin'," Alicia Keys; "Ms. Jackson," OutKast; "Drops of Jupiter," Train; "Stuck in a Moment you Can't Get Out of," U2 |
Will win: I love how everyone always stresses that this is a SONGWRITER'S award. Like everyone listens to the songs and says, "Wow, I don't care if it was Pauly Shore singing that, that is one bitchingly written song!" I mean, do the voters just take the sheet music and read it before making a choice? It's between Keys and U2. Go with U2 here.
Should win: I'll tell you what the worst song of the year is: the theme song to Raising Dad. I'd rather listen to Rosie O'Donnell doing show tunes. But the best song? Out of this bunch, I'd go with "Ms. Jackson" because it uses the phrase "nosy-ass homegirls." |
|
Album of the Year |
"Acoustic Soul," India.Arie; "Love and Theft," Bob Dylan; "Stankonia," OutKast; "All That You Can't Leave Behind," U2; O Brother, Where Art Thou? Soundtrack |
Will win: What, no Alicia Keys? The O Brother soundtrack will get its yee-haws elsewhere. This is the big chance to reward U2, who became pretty much Kings of Rock over the past year. I mean, they always thought they were, but now they actually are.
Should win: What, no Alicia Keys? The O Brother soundtrack will get its yee-haws elsewhere. This is the big chance to reward U2, who became pretty much Kings of Rock over the past year. I mean, they always thought they were, but now they actually are. |
|
Record of the Year |
"Video," India.Arie; "Fallin'," Alicia Keys; "Ms. Jackson," OutKast; "Drops of Jupiter," Train; "Walk On," U2 |
Will win: The New York Post reported recently that Alicia Keys got her prime Grammy performance spot after her record exec Clive Davis bought 3 million bucks worth of advertising from CBS. Now, I'm not suggesting that makes it likely Alicia will have a big night…but don't bet against her in any of the big categories. Train is in the just happy to be here slot. I'd say the same about Arie, but she had so many damn nominations it's possible she has a shot at one of them. U2 has had a great run, but this song wasn't their best off the album. It still might be enough to beat Keys if voters don't want to give her everything. My pick is…hold on a sec. Heads. Keys.
Should win: I like all of these songs, but "Ms. Jackson" is one of the coolest songs of the whole 21st century. |
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